O'Leary predicts $1M Bitcoin if quantum risk is resolved

Kevin O'Leary stated that Bitcoin will reach $1 million if the industry resolves the potential threat posed by quantum computing. The investor made the prediction while attending the Avalanche Summit, where he wore an $11 million Shohei Ohtani baseball card sealed in a Tiffany holder containing 110 carats of diamonds to illustrate the concept of tokenization.

O'Leary identified "Q-Day" as the primary condition for his forecast. This term refers to the hypothetical point at which a quantum computer could forge the digital signatures securing Bitcoin wallets. He noted that no such machine currently exists, with estimates for its arrival ranging from the early 2030s to never. O'Leary argued that this uncertainty is why large funds currently cap Bitcoin exposure near 3%, treating it as a minor allocation similar to gold rather than a core holding. He suggested that if developers can resolve this doubt, institutional caps on Bitcoin exposure would likely increase.

The interview also featured a shift in O'Leary's view on Ethereum. Eighteen months prior, his thesis was that owning Bitcoin and Ethereum captured 97% of crypto's upside because standardization would occur on Ethereum. He now states that this standardization did not happen and does not expect it to in the future. O'Leary described Ethereum as not fast enough or secure enough, a characterization he flagged as his own opinion. He now believes that entire industries will choose their own blockchains, and that the first major exchange adopting a specific chain for tokenization will see that token's value surge as it becomes the underlying infrastructure for trades.

The timing of these comments coincided with recent regulatory and infrastructure developments. The SEC approved its Innovation Exemption for tokenized stocks the previous week, and ICE is evaluating Avalanche as the settlement layer for the NYSE's in-development trading system. O'Leary framed crypto as becoming the twelfth sector of the S&P, serving the other eleven sectors.

Market data from the period showed Bitcoin at $85,700, up 6% on the day. Ethereum traded at $2,735, also up 6%, while Solana rose 9% to $119. Among altcoins, SEI and SUI led gains with increases of 27% each. The CFTC sent a crypto pre-rule to the White House titled "Regulation Crypto Asset Transactions and Regulation Crypto Asset Markets," signaling an intent to build a derivatives framework on its own authority following the failure of the Clarity Act.

In related filings, Coinbase submitted a request to the CFTC to list single-stock perpetual futures, starting with approximately 50 to 60 contracts including Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Nvidia. This filing is subject to a 45-day review period running through November 2. Meanwhile, Grayscale's Zcash ETF is set to execute a 3-for-1 forward split effective September 30. The fund has attracted more than $233 million since its August 25 debut, approaching $890 million in total assets.