Melbourne study: Battery emissions could rise by factor of 10 or more by 2050

A new study led by Haiwei Zhou at the University of Melbourne projects that greenhouse gas emissions from lithium-ion battery manufacturing could increase by a factor of 10 or more by 2050. The research examines the production footprint of the batteries that underpin the energy transition, noting that while these emissions currently represent 0.18 percent of annual global releases, they are expected to grow as battery usage expands.

The study positions battery production as a critical area for future decarbonization efforts. As the dominant sources of emissions, such as those from vehicles and heating, are reduced through electrification and renewable energy, the relative importance of smaller emission categories increases. The researchers argue that the energy transition cannot be complete if the materials required to power it continue to generate significant carbon output.

Several pathways exist to lower the energy intensity of battery production. The study highlights that certain elements used in different lithium-ion chemistries are more energy-intensive to mine and refine than others. Improving the energy efficiency of the various steps in the manufacturing process is another identified lever for reduction. Additionally, recycling offers a route to reintroduce battery materials into the supply chain while requiring significantly less energy than primary mining.