U.S. Men's National Team Draws Near-Certain Round of 32 Matchup Against 62nd-Ranked Bosnia and Herzegovina

The United States Men's National Team has a near-certain first knockout-round opponent locked in: Bosnia and Herzegovina, ranked 62nd in the world — 48 spots below the 14th-ranked Americans. Bosnia and Herzegovina secured third place in Group B with a 3-1 victory over Qatar on Wednesday, putting the probability of a U.S.-Bosnia matchup at greater than 99%, according to The Athletic. Senegal and Austria each hold less than a 1% chance of taking that slot.

How the Bracket Set

The U.S. clinched Group D last week and, as group winner, was slotted to face the third-place finisher from another group. Bosnia and Herzegovina's win over Qatar removed almost all ambiguity from that equation — a draw would have opened the matchup to a wider field of possibilities. Qatar's loss also ended its tournament entirely. Before the Round of 32 becomes official, the Americans still meet Türkiye on Thursday at 10 p.m. ET, but that match carries no stakes: the U.S. has already won the group, and Türkiye has already been eliminated.

A Favorable Path Deeper Into the Bracket

Should the U.S. advance past Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Round of 16 picture also looks manageable. The Americans would face either the Group G winner or another third-place finisher, and only Belgium — currently 10th in the world — ranks higher than the U.S. among that pool of potential opponents. Belgium still needs a win and outside help to claim Group G.

Americans Arriving Hot

The U.S. enters the knockout stage on the back of its strongest group-stage scoring run in decades. Six goals in two games ties the program's best group-stage output — with a third match still to play. The run began with a 4-1 opening win over Paraguay and continued with a 2-0 shutout of Australia that clinched the group berth. The back-to-back victories marked the first time the U.S. men's program had won consecutive World Cup matches since the inaugural 1930 tournament.

The Round of 32 match against Bosnia and Herzegovina is scheduled for next Wednesday in the Bay Area.