Iowa Senate Race Narrows to Margin-of-Error Gap as Trump Approval Drops 19 Points in New Fox News Poll
A Fox News Poll conducted June 23-27, 2026 shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson 50% to 46% in the race to replace retiring Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst — a gap that falls within the survey's ±3-point…
A Fox News Poll conducted June 23-27, 2026 shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson 50% to 46% in the race to replace retiring Iowa Sen. Joni Ernst — a gap that falls within the survey's ±3-point margin of error. President Donald Trump's net favorability in Iowa has moved 19 points since the November 2024 election, swinging from +6 to -13, a shift that pollsters say is reshaping what was recently safe Republican terrain.
The Numbers Behind the Competitiveness
Ernst won her 2020 re-election by 6.5 points. Trump carried the state by 8 points that year and by 13 in 2024. The last Iowa Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat was Tom Harkin, in 2008. The new survey, drawn from 1,003 registered Iowa voters contacted via landline, cellphone, and text-to-online, puts Turek's personal favorability at a net +18 (51% favorable, 33% unfavorable). Hinson's net rating is -7 (42% favorable, 49% unfavorable) — still more positive than Trump's -13, but underwater. Among voters describing themselves as extremely motivated to vote, Turek extends his margin to 15 points, fueled by a 14-point enthusiasm gap: 67% of Democrats in that category versus 53% of Republicans.
Coalition Splits and Candidate Strength
Turek draws his support from women with a college degree (65%), independents (59%), urban voters (59%), and voters under 30 (55%). Hinson's base consolidates among White evangelical Christians (67%), men 45 and older (55%), veterans (52%), and men without a college degree (52%). MAGA Republicans back Hinson at 95%, compared to 72% among non-MAGA Republicans — a 23-point internal party gap. Turek's supporters are also more locked in: 82% say they are certain of their vote, against 72% of Hinson's backers, with nearly 3 in 10 Hinson supporters acknowledging they may change their minds.
Economic Anxiety as the Deciding Variable
Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who co-conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson, assessed Iowa as reverting to swing status. He pointed to three factors: rising prices, skepticism toward foreign engagements, and agricultural discontent over tariffs. The data support him. In the 2024 Fox News Voter Analysis, 31% of Iowans said they were falling behind financially; that figure now stands at 42%, nearly four times the share saying they are getting ahead (11%). Inflation leads as the top Senate vote driver at 39%, followed by healthcare at 14%, immigration and border security at 13%, and political divisions at 13%. Turek holds a 15-point edge among inflation-focused voters and a 53-point advantage on healthcare. Hinson leads on immigration by 88 points.
Governor's Race Adds Democratic Momentum
With Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds also stepping aside, Democrat Rob Sand leads Republican Zach Lahn by 9 points in the race to succeed her. Sand's net favorability is +21 (54% favorable, 33% unfavorable). Lahn's is -3, with 20% unable to rate him. Crossover dynamics are modest but notable: 11% of Hinson supporters back Sand for governor, compared to 7% of Turek supporters choosing Lahn — a signal that some Republican-leaning Iowans are splitting their tickets downballot.
Related reading
Filed via foxnews.com