GE Vernova orders surge in Q2 but stock lags S&P 500

GE Vernova (GEV) reported that Power orders more than doubled and Electrification orders rose 66% in the second quarter of 2026, according to the company's July 22, 2026 earnings call. Despite this acceleration in demand, shares of the company returned just 1.7% over the past six months, significantly trailing the 12.6% gain for the S&P 500 during the same period.

Management now expects 2026 revenue to reach $45.5 billion to $46.5 billion, a substantial increase from the $38.1 billion reported in fiscal 2025. This outlook follows two previous raises to the 2026 revenue forecast during the twelve months leading up to October 13, 2026, a period in which GEV shares returned 66.5% compared to the S&P 500's 20.5% return.

The current strength in Power and Electrification contrasts sharply with performance in the Wind segment. Wind orders fell 40% in the second quarter of 2026, and management noted that it remains difficult to predict a turnaround in U.S. orders for that business. In fiscal 2025, Wind revenue declined 6.1% to $9.1 billion, falling below the Electrification segment. Conversely, Electrification revenue grew 27.7% that year to $9.6 billion, accounting for 25% of GE Vernova's total revenue.

Investors who monitored the company in late 2024 would have seen early signs of this growth trajectory. During the October 23, 2024 call for the third quarter of 2024, management stated that Power orders rose 34% in that quarter. Three months later, on the January 22, 2025 call, management reported growth in its backlog, which measures orders taken but not yet delivered.

Revenue growth accelerated throughout the first half of 2025. After rising 5.1% from a year earlier in the fourth quarter of 2024, revenue grew 10.6% in the first quarter of 2025. Reuters reported on April 23, 2025, that first-quarter revenue beat estimates due to strong performance at the Power and Electrification units. Growth reached 11.1% in the second quarter of 2025, with results filed on July 23, 2025.

The stock had already advanced significantly before the most recent twelve-month period began. Shares rose 88.3% in the six months before October 10, 2025. Over that same twelve-month window through October 13, 2026, peers Eaton and Honeywell International returned 17.3% and 10.5%, respectively, failing to match GE Vernova's previous run.

The next key test for the stock will be the third-quarter 2026 report. If Power and Electrification orders continue to rise from a year earlier, the growth trend observed prior to the recent stock advance remains intact. If those orders decline, the prior growth may have reached its limit.