GE Vernova and Vistra in focus as AI grid demand sells turbine slots through 2030
GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) is carrying a $176 billion backlog with production slots mostly sold out through 2030, after orders rose 88% in the most recent quarter as artificial intelligence data center expansion pushes…
Key takeaways
- GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) holds a $176 billion backlog with production slots mostly sold out through 2030 as AI data center demand drives customers to reserve turbine capacity years ahead.
- GE Vernova's orders rose 88% in the most recent quarter, and it posted FY 2025 revenue of $38.1 billion (up 8.9%) with net income of $4.9 billion and a roughly 12.8% net margin.
- Vistra (NYSE: VST) owns the second-largest U.S. nuclear fleet and is moving toward a $4 billion acquisition of Cogentrix, but saw FY 2025 revenue fall 12.4% to $17 billion with a 4.0x debt-to-equity ratio.
- GEV trades at 31.1x forward earnings versus VST's 15.4x, roughly half, per Financial Modeling Prep.
- Key risks include a December 2025 U.S. offshore wind leasing pause and SMR execution risk for GEV, and Vistra's high 4.0x debt load limiting flexibility.
GE Vernova (NYSE: GEV) is carrying a $176 billion backlog with production slots mostly sold out through 2030, after orders rose 88% in the most recent quarter as artificial intelligence data center expansion pushes customers to reserve capacity years ahead. Vistra (NYSE: VST) is in focus on the same theme from the generation side, owning the second-largest nuclear fleet in the U.S. and moving toward a $4 billion acquisition of Cogentrix.
The numbers in comparison
GE Vernova posted FY 2025 revenue growth of 8.9% to $38.1 billion. Net income came in at $4.9 billion, pushing the net margin to roughly 12.8% from 4.4% in FY 2024. The company generated approximately $3.7 billion in free cash flow and carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.3x after issuing $2.6 billion to finance an acquisition earlier this year.
Vistra's FY 2025 picture runs in the opposite direction. Revenue fell 12.4% to $17 billion, and net income landed at roughly $944 million, for a net margin of approximately 5.6%. Free cash flow was approximately $129 million. The debt-to-equity ratio sits at roughly 4.0x, with a current ratio near 0.8x.
On valuation, GEV trades at 31.1x forward earnings and 6.7x sales. VST sits at 15.4x forward earnings and 2.7x sales, per Financial Modeling Prep.
What the setup implies
The case for GEV rests on demand that has already cleared the theoretical stage. Tech companies and utilities facing years-long interconnection queues on the traditional grid are turning to gas turbines for immediate on-site power, and customers are paying to lock in slots years in advance. GE Vernova generates nearly 25% of the world's electricity through its turbines and is also expanding into small modular reactors and carbon capture through partnerships that include Chevron (NYSE: CVX).
The premium multiple prices in execution that still has to happen, though. A December 2025 pause on U.S. offshore wind leasing adds uncertainty to part of the revenue timeline, and SMR commercialization carries real execution risk.
Vistra's setup offers direct exposure to wholesale electricity prices and long-term power purchase agreements with hyperscalers including Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META). The company serves nearly 5 million retail customers across 16 states and the District of Columbia, and its forward earnings multiple of 15.4x is roughly half of GEV's. The constraint is the 4.0x debt load, a number that limits flexibility if wholesale prices swing against it.
What to watch: confirmation of the Cogentrix acquisition close and GE Vernova's next backlog update, which will show whether 88% order growth has a ceiling.