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A Fox News Poll conducted June 23-27, 2026 shows Democrat Josh Turek leading Republican Ashley Hinson 50% to 46% in the race to replace retiring Iowa Sen.
Joni Ernst — a gap that falls within the survey's ±3-point margin of error.
President Donald Trump's net favorability in Iowa has moved 19 points since the November 2024 election, swinging from +6 to -13, a shift that pollsters say is reshaping what was recently safe Republican terrain.
The Numbers Behind the Competitiveness Ernst won her 2020 re-election by 6.5 points. Trump carried the state by 8 points that year and by 13 in 2024. The last Iowa Democrat to win a U.S.
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