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A major chip index has doubled this year, yet the sector's defining name — Nvidia — sits at the bottom of that same index.
The divergence captures a structural constraint that arrives at a certain scale: when a company is large enough to set market expectations, it has shrinking room left to beat them.
The Expectation Ceiling One analyst framed the dynamic directly: Nvidia has grown so large that its capacity to top expectations has gotten materially smaller.
That is not a statement about Nvidia's products or its competitive position. It is a statement about arithmetic.
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