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Bond traders eye Fed wage gauge before Friday update and June inflation print

7/7/2026

A Federal Reserve gauge of wage growth is due for an update on Friday, giving bond markets the first piece of data they need to calibrate their read on Fed rate hike odds.

A June consumer inflation reading follows on Tuesday, compressing two closely watched releases into a single trading week.

The wage tracker bond markets are watching The Fed's wage growth gauge has become a reference point for rates markets trying to price the real probability of further central bank action.

Wage pressures feed into services costs, which tend to move more slowly than goods prices. Friday's update will either confirm or complicate how bond traders are currently positioned on the rate outlook.

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