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Bitcoin History Flags 11% Drawdown Risk Around Upcoming FOMC

6/17/2026

$BTC's own track record is flashing a warning sign ahead of the next Federal Reserve policy decision.

Analysis from Trefis, drawing on Bitcoin price history, suggests the asset could shed roughly 11% in the wake of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The pattern is backward-looking — what happened, not a guarantee of what will. What the Historical Pattern Shows Trefis points to Bitcoin's price history as the basis for the 11% drawdown signal.

The framing is straightforward: look at how $BTC has moved around prior FOMC decisions, identify a recurring pattern, and project it forward.

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