XRP holds $1.01 after first sub-dollar touch in 635 days, three models see floor between $0.55 and $0.80
$XRP touched $0.99 on August 11, the first intraday print below a dollar since November 2024, cracking what had been a 635-consecutive-day run of daily closes above that level. The price has recovered to $1.01, but the…
Key takeaways
- XRP touched $0.99 on August 11, its first intraday print below $1 since November 2024, ending a 635-day run of daily closes above that level.
- XRP has recovered to $1.01 but trades below its 50-day EMA ($1.09), 100-day ($1.17), and 200-day ($1.36) averages, with a daily RSI of 36.
- Three AI models placed XRP's downside floor between $0.55 and $0.80: ChatGPT at $0.78, Claude at $0.80, and Gemini at $0.55.
- ChatGPT and Gemini each put the odds of a sub-$1 daily close before end of September at 75%, while Claude set it at 65% citing whale buying.
- The September 15 Senate CLARITY Act vote is the only remaining scheduled catalyst that could pull institutional money back in.
$XRP touched $0.99 on August 11, the first intraday print below a dollar since November 2024, cracking what had been a 635-consecutive-day run of daily closes above that level. The price has recovered to $1.01, but the tape has not reclaimed a single trend average. The only scheduled catalyst remaining is the Senate CLARITY Act vote on September 15.
The numbers
Every moving average is pointed against the setup. Gemini noted that XRP sits below the 50-day EMA at $1.09, the 100-day at $1.17, and the 200-day at $1.36. The daily RSI reads 36, just above the 30 level that marks oversold.
ETF flow data shows where the real pressure is building. Weekly inflows into XRP ETFs fell 93% to $1.01 million for the week ending August 8, with net assets at $964 million against the $666 million those funds gathered in their first month. ChatGPT pointed to parallel deterioration on-chain: daily active addresses on the XRP Ledger dropped 23.2% in the first half of the year, from 19,927 to 15,302, even as total activated accounts crossed 8 million.
What the models called
Three AI models were given the current price and ETF flow data and asked where XRP stops if the $1 floor breaks. ChatGPT and Gemini each put the odds of a sub-$1 daily close before the end of September at 75%. Claude set its probability at 65%, pointing to continued whale buying at that level as the reason for the lower number.
On the bottom call, ChatGPT argued $0.78, on the reasoning that round-number breaks tend to overshoot stop-loss clusters before buyers step back in. Claude picked $0.80, noting that 635 days of price action above $1 means very little historical support exists below it. Gemini went to $0.55, pointing to the $0.50-to-$0.60 band as the last range where buyers have historically shown up. Claude also flagged $0.62 as a tail-risk level if the CLARITY Act fails and Bitcoin sells off simultaneously.
The $933 million held in XRP ETFs amounts to 1.5% of XRP's $63 billion market cap. XRP trades more than that in a single session, so the funds can absorb selling at the margin but cannot stop a sustained move lower.
The September 15 Senate vote is the last event on the calendar with the weight to pull institutional money back in. A failed vote would leave XRP without a 2026 catalyst, and both prior extended stretches below $1 began the same way: a shallow slip under the level in February 2018 that stretched to 1,139 days, and another in November 2021 that ran 1,085 days.