U.S. goods-trade deficit widens to $118.8 billion in July, largest since March 2025
The U.S. goods-trade deficit widened 17.2% to $118.8 billion in July, well above the $100.5 billion consensus and the largest print since March 2025. Imports climbed 3.7%, led by the biggest monthly surge in…
Key takeaways
- The U.S. goods-trade deficit widened 17.2% to $118.8 billion in July, the largest since March 2025.
- The July deficit came in about $18.3 billion above the $100.5 billion consensus forecast.
- Imports rose 3.7%, driven by the biggest monthly surge in capital-goods shipments since 1993, including computers and semiconductors, while exports fell 2.9%.
- Because net exports subtract from GDP, the wider-than-expected deficit suggests the trade drag on third-quarter GDP growth may run heavier than prior estimates assumed.
The U.S. goods-trade deficit widened 17.2% to $118.8 billion in July, well above the $100.5 billion consensus and the largest print since March 2025. Imports climbed 3.7%, led by the biggest monthly surge in capital-goods shipments since 1993, a category that included computers and semiconductors. Exports fell 2.9%.
The supply-side read
Capital goods are the headline in the import data. The 1993 comparison anchors the supply-side view: monthly acceleration of that scale in that category is uncommon, and the jump covered both computers and semiconductors. The actual print came in roughly $18.3 billion above the $100.5 billion forecast, a gap driven by the import acceleration and the concurrent export decline.
The Q3 read-through
Net exports enter GDP as a subtraction. When imports outrun exports by a wider margin than consensus anticipated, the trade component pulls from growth more heavily. July's deficit landing $18.3 billion above forecast suggests the trade drag on third-quarter GDP growth may run heavier than prior estimates assumed. The fuller monthly trade figures are the next data point to watch.