Thune predicts GOP will outperform polls to retain Senate majority

Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., predicts Republicans will outperform current polling and retain their narrow 53-to-47 Senate majority in the Nov. 3 election. The leader remains confident in the party's ability to hold its slim advantage despite acknowledging that the GOP faces significant headwinds as several key contests tighten or slip toward the Democrats.

Thune made the assessment while campaigning on the trail in support of Sen. Pete Ricketts, R-Neb. In an interview with Fox News Digital, he characterized many of the upcoming races as "jump balls" or margin-of-error contests. He argued that historical polling data tends to under-reflect the Republican vote, a trend he expects to see repeat itself this cycle. "We're not giving up on any of them," Thune said.

According to the Cook Political Report, Republicans are hoping to defend six toss-up races in this midterm cycle. The political landscape has shifted recently, with states that previously appeared as safe bets for the GOP, such as Mississippi and South Carolina, moving more favorably toward Democrats. Meanwhile, other races have become unexpectedly competitive, including the contest in Kansas where Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan., is locked in a tight fight.

The redirection of campaign resources reflects these changing odds. The Senate Leadership Fund, a political action committee closely aligned with Thune, moved money from Georgia to Kansas earlier this month. The fund had initially pledged $44 million to support Rep. Mike Collins, R-Ga., in his challenge against incumbent Sen. Jon Ossoff, D-Ga. However, Ossoff has consistently led Collins in polling and continued to raise substantial campaign donations.

Similar withdrawals have occurred in North Carolina, where former RNC co-chair Michael Whatley is running against former Gov. Roy Cooper to retain the seat of retiring Sen. Thom Tillis. The Senate Leadership Fund pulled back nearly all of its spending in the state earlier this month, a move that signaled waning confidence in Whatley's ability to defeat Cooper. President Donald Trump expressed concern about the race during a rally for Whatley on Tuesday, telling reporters earlier this month that while he believes Whatley is a great man, he is worried about his chances of winning.

Thune identified voter turnout as the decisive factor for the Republican Party's success. He stated that the party must mobilize low-propensity voters, particularly those aligned with Trump, while also working to win over the middle of the electorate. "Turnout's going to be a big part of whether or not we're successful or not," Thune said, noting that candidates in every state he has visited are focusing on this goal. He concluded that securing high turnout could be the difference in winning close races on Election Day.