HOG raises full-year guidance on tighter dealer lots and North American retail gains
Global dealer inventory of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles ended the second quarter down 17 percent year-over-year, providing the physical footing for a guidance raise that moved the HDMC operating income midpoint up by…
Global dealer inventory of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles ended the second quarter down 17 percent year-over-year, providing the physical footing for a guidance raise that moved the HDMC operating income midpoint up by $55 million. Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE: HOG) reported second-quarter 2026 results on July 23, with HDMC adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 110 basis points to 10.4 percent and North American retail units up 3 percent to 29,751. The company now guides full-year HDMC operating income to $10 million to $50 million, against a prior range of a $40 million loss to a $10 million profit.
Inventory draw and the wholesale-to-retail spread
HDMC global motorcycle shipments reached 39,209 units in the quarter, up 9 percent versus prior year. Wholesale unit shipments came in below retail unit sales, which Harley-Davidson described as intentional. That alignment matters: the 17-percent reduction in global dealer new motorcycle inventory versus the end of Q2 2025 is the number that gives the guidance raise physical credibility. A volume signal alone would not carry the same weight with dealer lots still full.
North American retail of 29,751 units was driven by Touring and Sport categories and an early positive response to the 2026 motorcycle line-up, including the 2026 Super Glide, introduced in June. International results were mixed. EMEA retail fell 9 percent to approximately 7,000 units, with the German region (Germany, Austria, and Switzerland) identified as the soft spot. Asia Pacific held flat near 5,000 units, while Latin America grew 4 percent.
HDMC improves; HDFS shrinks the balance sheet
HDMC revenue rose 6 percent to $1.1 billion. Motorcycle revenue was up 9 percent to $848 million, while parts and accessories slipped 5 percent to $177 million. HDMC operating income came in at $72 million, up 18 percent from $61 million. Gross margin contracted 108 basis points to 27.5 percent, held back by unfavorable product mix, net pricing, raw materials, and foreign exchange effects, partially offset by manufacturing efficiencies and a tariff recovery that benefited gross profit.
Harley-Davidson Financial Services told a different story. HDFS revenue fell 55 percent to $117 million and operating income dropped 69 percent to $22 million, both consequences of the retail loan asset sale that took place in the second half of 2025. Quarter-end net finance receivables totaled $2.6 billion, a 64-percent decline. On a consolidated basis, HOG posted $1,230 million in revenue (down 6 percent) and diluted EPS of $0.75, down 15 percent from $0.88 in Q2 2025. Net income attributable to Harley-Davidson was $80 million, versus $108 million a year ago.
LiveWire revenue grew 52 percent to $9 million on higher electric motorcycle and STACYC electric balance bike sales, with the segment operating loss narrowing to $18 million from $19 million.
Revised guidance and what to watch
Full-year HDMC retail and wholesale shipments guidance lifted to 133,500 to 138,500 units from 130,000 to 135,000 units. HDFS operating income guidance moved to $55 million to $70 million from $45 million to $60 million. LiveWire operating loss guidance holds at $70 million to $80 million. President and CEO Artie Starrs pointed to first-half results, market share gains, and execution against the Back to the Bricks strategic initiative as the basis for the raise.
Through June 30, Harley-Davidson held $1.9 billion in cash and equivalents after repurchasing $158 million of shares (7.9 million shares) in the first half. The setup for the back half hinges on whether dealer inventory stays below prior-year levels when the Q3 print arrives.