Generational Fault Line Opens on China Threat as Reagan Poll Shows 31-Point Gap Among Americans

Young Americans are sharply more relaxed about China than their elders, a new Ronald Reagan Institute Summer Survey shows, with a 31-percentage-point gap separating the oldest and youngest cohorts on whether Beijing can spy on the United States — a divide that carries long-run implications for U.S. foreign policy as younger voters grow into a larger share of the electorate.

The Numbers Behind the Divide

The Reagan Institute survey, conducted May 26 through June 3 among 1,555 U.S. adults, found that 93% of Americans aged 65 and older expressed concern about China's espionage capabilities, against just 62% of those aged 18 to 29. The gap was equally pronounced across other flashpoints: concern about China's potential use of force against Taiwan ran at 86% among seniors versus 56% among younger Americans; technology theft registered 91% versus 61%; Chinese purchases of U.S. land, 93% versus 68%; and China's role in fentanyl flows, 92% versus 68%. The poll carries a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.

Despite those generational gaps, headline national numbers held elevated. More than 80% of all Americans said they were concerned about fentanyl, spying, and Chinese land purchases. Sixty-six percent said Taiwan's security matters to the United States.

Policy Context: Trump-Xi Rapprochement Shifts the Backdrop

The findings land as Washington and Beijing are actively trying to stabilize their relationship. President Donald Trump traveled to China in May, met with President Xi Jinping, and announced trade and investment agreements, pledging continued dialogue. Trump described Xi as a "great leader" and China as a "great country." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore that same month, acknowledged China's military buildup but said U.S.-China relations are "better than they've been in many years."

A separate 2025 Carnegie Endowment survey reinforced the Reagan Institute's findings, showing younger Americans are less likely than older cohorts to prioritize maintaining U.S. technological dominance over China and generally favor a reduced American leadership role abroad.

Partisan Fault Lines Deepen Too

The Reagan Institute poll also captured a significant partisan reshuffling on global engagement. Seventy-one percent of Republicans said the United States should take a leading international role, compared with 55% of Democrats — a gap that widened from four percentage points a year ago to 16. Overall, 61% of Americans favor greater global engagement against 27% who prefer a pullback.

The partisan shift among Democrats is particularly striking: support for U.S. global engagement fell from 65% to 55% over the past year, while 43% of Democrats now say U.S. global involvement is harmful, more than double the 22% who held that view a year ago. Republican support for engagement edged up from 69% to 71% over the same period.

The survey used a mixed-mode methodology — live telephone interviews, an online panel, and text-to-web responses — weighted to 2023 U.S. Census Bureau benchmarks. It also included an oversample of 338 self-identified MAGA Republicans under age 30, carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Related reading

• Oil Rises, Stock Futures Advance as U.S. and Iran Continue Airstrikes in the Persian Gulf
• Supreme Court's Mullin v. Doe Ruling Opens Path for Mass Removal of Haitian and Syrian TPS Holders