FRMI in focus after $6.5 billion TensorWave lease gives Fermi its first committed Project Matador tenant

A 15-year binding lease between Fermi (FRMI) and AI cloud provider TensorWave, worth approximately $6.5 billion in contracted revenue and covering the first 222-megawatt phase of Project Matador on an 8,400-acre Texas campus, sent shares up roughly 21% on Aug. 11. The next window is the Aug. 13 earnings print.

The numbers

Before this agreement, Fermi had no committed tenant on a project it had been building without meaningful revenue. That changed with TensorWave. The lease covers Phase 1 at 222 megawatts, with deliveries expected to begin in the second half of 2027. The companies reportedly intend to expand the relationship beyond 650 megawatts across three phases, though that expansion remains prospective.

The $6.5 billion is contracted revenue over 15 years, not a near-term cash event. Fermi's Q1 2026 results show where the company stands: a net loss of $188.7 million, or $0.30 per share, against a consensus estimate of a $0.03 loss. Revenue for the period was zero. The company has been committing capital ahead of that revenue, agreeing to purchase three gas turbine units from Siemens (SMEGF) and pricing a $375 million convertible note offering in July.

The setup

Securing a committed tenant converts this story from a development announcement to a contracted-revenue one. Having a binding counterparty could make it easier for Fermi to attract additional customers and secure construction financing, though execution risk on the build is real. FRMI has traded between $4.47 and $36.99 over the past year. Before Aug. 11, shares were down substantially in 2026; after the rally, the stock sits roughly 6% below where it started the year.

Wall Street's consensus sits at "Strong Buy," with an average price target of $18.90, representing potential upside of 148% from current levels. The range spans from $6 at the low to $35 at the high. Mizuho maintained its "Outperform" rating after the announcement, offering an $11 price target and calling the TensorWave lease a long-awaited catalyst.

What to watch

The Aug. 13 print is the next date on the tape. Analysts expect a loss of roughly $0.06 per share against revenue of about $3 million. The more consequential disclosures will be any update on construction progress, financing, and whether additional tenants are in discussion. Phase 1 delivery in the second half of 2027 remains the first concrete operational date on the calendar.