F-35 and Patriot signals at NATO's Ankara summit put LMT, RTX and BA in focus

Two defense programs sat at the center of the NATO summit in Ankara this week, and both carry direct implications for Lockheed Martin (LMT), RTX (RTX), and Boeing (BA). On Tuesday, President Donald Trump indicated he might clear the way for Turkey to purchase F-35 fighters, six years after Ankara was removed from the program. On Wednesday, July 8, Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy he might issue a license for Ukraine to manufacture Patriot missile interceptors. The next confirmable milestone for either program is a formal licensing or procurement agreement.

Patriot production: the supply chain behind the headline

The license offer to Ukraine carries weight as a signal to Russia, but the manufacturing reality moves slowly. Patriot output is already a top U.S. Army priority, and the supplier base is running hard. Last year, the Army awarded Lockheed Martin nearly $10 billion to accelerate production of the most advanced Patriot variant. Boeing has since completed a 35,000-square-foot facility in Huntsville, Alabama, built to triple output of Patriot missile seekers. The seeker guides the interceptor to direct bodily contact with the incoming warhead, a precision task handled by a Ka-band millimeter wave sensor.

Poland is already embedded in the supply chain. WZE was selected on May 28 to manufacture attitude control motors for the Patriot PAC-3. RTX has engaged 10 Polish companies as part of the Wisla integrated missile defense system. Poland also signed an agreement with the U.S., Germany, the Netherlands, and Sweden to operate a PAC-3 service center. Ukrainian firms may eventually join that base, but a domestically produced Patriot battery is years off.

The battlefield pressure behind Trump's offer is immediate. Zelenskyy on July 6: "Russia is placing its bets on ballistic weapons, and those who want peace must place their bets on protection against ballistic attacks." On the Monday before the Ankara summit, Ukraine's air defenses failed to intercept a single ballistic missile from a barrage that included dozens of such weapons wrapped in 300 or more drones. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on July 6 the alliance is "working from every angle" to increase Patriot flow to Ukraine.

F-35 and Turkey: six years after expulsion

Turkey joined the F-35 program in 2002, with Turkish industry slated to co-produce fuselage sections and other components. That arrangement ended in 2019 when Ankara purchased the Russian S-400 air defense system. Turkish pilots were sent home from flight training in Arizona, and the six aircraft Turkey had paid for were held back. Trump at the Ankara summit said Turkey has been "in many ways much more loyal than other countries."

The original security concern was that Turkey could fly F-35s alongside S-400 sensors and collect radar signature data. That concern has eased. Turkey is building its "Steel Dome" air defense without the Russian system, and F-35s have operated freely across the Middle East and along Russia's border in the years since the expulsion.

What to watch

A formal U.S. government decision on Turkey's F-35 re-entry and a signed licensing framework for Ukraine's Patriot production role are the definitive milestones. Any new production contract announcement at LMT or RTX is the print to track.