Carney concedes Trump has won NATO spending argument as Canada targets 4% of GDP

At the NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney told reporters Wednesday that President Donald Trump has "won the argument" on alliance defense spending, a notable concession from one of Washington's most consistent critics of the administration. Carney said he delivered that assessment directly to Trump during a phone call Sunday, before both leaders arrived at the summit. The next confirmable milestone: whether the Trump administration moves forward with countermeasures for members that fall short of the alliance's new 5% spending target.

Carney's shift in tone

The remarks stand in contrast to the same prime minister who, during his March 2025 victory speech, accused Trump of placing "unjustified tariffs" on Canada and vowed to maintain retaliatory measures until "the Americans show us respect." At Ankara, the framing changed. Carney said NATO members "realize they need to take more responsibility" and that the U.S. push for a NATO burden shift is "appropriate" and "gaining momentum." He also described Trump as being "in a good mood" at the summit.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte offered a parallel read, saying Trump had achieved what American presidents had sought since the Eisenhower era: equalizing defense spending between Europe and the United States.

Canada's 4% commitment and new defense contracts

At the 2025 NATO summit in The Hague, Netherlands, alliance leaders set a target of 5% of GDP on defense and security by 2035, more than doubling the prior 2% benchmark. Canada was spending approximately 1.4% of GDP when Carney's government took office. The country is now on track, by the prime minister's account, to reach 4% before the end of the decade under NATO accounting standards.

Canada announced several specific investments this week: a submarine procurement program, a secure Arctic communications agreement using Telesat's Lightspeed satellite constellation, and a contract of approximately $800 million for Joint Strike Missiles for Canada's future fighter aircraft.

Spain in the crosshairs; enforcement questions remain

Trump singled out Spain on Wednesday, calling it "a terrible partner in NATO" after Madrid declined to commit to the 5% target, and urged cutting U.S. trade and tourism with the country. Spain contends it can meet NATO military capability requirements while spending approximately 2.1% of GDP. Britain and France have each pledged to move toward 5% but currently spend well below that level.

NATO Ambassador Matthew Whitaker said July 1 that the administration was reviewing countermeasures for members that miss the mark. The alliance has no formal mechanism to compel compliance. Britain and France, both major economies with pledges but no firm timelines on the tape, are the next names to watch.