Bitcoin-gold correlation hits six-year high as $BTC breaks from equities
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin ($BTC) and gold has reached its highest point since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to data from Bitwise, as rising yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasury bonds and a broad market…
Key takeaways
- The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached its highest level since 2020, according to Bitwise data.
- In the second half of August, Bitcoin rose nearly 25% while gold climbed 5% and equities declined, driven by bond market turmoil.
- As of September 3, Bitcoin stood at $78,500 and gold at $4,540 per ounce.
- Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell toward zero during the August rally, reversing its recent tendency to track technology stocks.
- Bitwise reported a negative correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar at the end of August, with dollar weakness acting as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold.
The 90-day correlation between Bitcoin ($BTC) and gold has reached its highest point since the Covid-19 pandemic, according to data from Bitwise, as rising yields on longer-dated U.S. Treasury bonds and a broad market selloff pushed the two assets into tighter alignment. Bitcoin spent much of the past several years tracking technology stocks more closely than gold. That relationship has inverted through the latest stretch of market volatility.
The August print
In the second half of August, Bitcoin rose nearly 25% while gold climbed 5% and equities declined, with bond market turmoil as the driver. BTC stood at $78,500 and gold at $4,540 per ounce as of September 3. The last time Bitcoin and gold correlated at this level was 2020, when governments and central banks deployed fiscal and monetary stimulus in response to the pandemic.
Bitwise also reported a negative correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. dollar at the end of August. The firm notes that headwinds for the dollar act as tailwinds for both Bitcoin and gold in this configuration. Bitcoin's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 fell toward zero during the August rally, extending the divergence from the equity pattern the asset had carried in recent years.
What to watch
Dollar trajectory and long-end Treasury yields are the setup's live variables. The correlation data speaks directly to the longstanding debate over Bitcoin's fundamental role. Advocates have argued for years that it should function as a store of value alongside gold bullion, and the Bitwise findings give that argument its most concrete recent support. Some analysts and investors already describe Bitcoin as "digital gold," and the current setup has moved that framing from thesis to data point. $4,540 per ounce on gold and $78,500 on BTC are the levels the tape is marking.