Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $462.7 million as Fed rate decision and dot plot arrive with Q4 fifteen days out
The buying that had been absorbing Bitcoin's supply has weakened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs ($BTC) recorded $462.7 million in net outflows over the four days ending September 11, interrupting a $3.8 billion three-week inflow…
Key takeaways
- Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $462.7 million in net outflows over the four days ending September 11, interrupting a $3.8 billion three-week inflow run.
- The Federal Reserve delivers its first rate hike in three years at 2:00 p.m. ET today, expected to lift the upper federal funds rate from 3.75% to 4.00%, alongside a new dot plot.
- Bitcoin sits at $75,787, down 13% year-to-date and nearly 35% from a year ago, with fifteen days before Q4 opens.
- Key support sits at $75,000, $74,000, and $72,000, while resistance starts at $76,500 and extends to $82,300.
- ETF flows turned positive again on September 14, but whether that holds after the 2:00 p.m. ET Fed decision is the first read the tape gets.
The buying that had been absorbing Bitcoin's supply has weakened. Spot Bitcoin ETFs ($BTC) recorded $462.7 million in net outflows over the four days ending September 11, interrupting a $3.8 billion three-week inflow run that had helped support prices below $80,000. The Federal Reserve delivers its first rate hike in three years at 2:00 p.m. ET today, with a new dot plot arriving alongside it, and Bitcoin sits at $75,787 with fifteen days before Q4 opens.
The numbers in the setup
Bitcoin's market cap stands at $1.52 trillion. Volume over the past 24 hours reached $37.63 billion, up roughly 28%. Circulating supply is 20.08 million BTC against the 21 million cap, putting the fully diluted valuation near $1.59 trillion.
The 50-week moving average sits around $81,000, and Bitcoin has traded below it since June 2026. The realized price, which measures the average on-chain cost basis of coins last moved, is $53,600, leaving the typical holder above water at current prices. Key support sits at $75,000, $74,000, and $72,000. Resistance above starts at $76,500, then $78,300, $80,000, and $82,300.
Bitcoin is down 13% year-to-date from a December 31 closing price near $87,500 and down nearly 35% from the roughly $116,800 level it traded at a year ago.
What the dot plot means for the tape
The Fed is expected to lift the upper end of the federal funds rate today from 3.75% to 4.00%, a move futures have already priced in. Bank of America expects hikes in October and December as well, which would take rates to a 4.25% to 4.50% range by year-end, above what current December futures imply. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.97%.
Brent crude closed at $108.75 after Saudi Arabia shut its East-West pipeline, up from $96.02 on September 1. That complicates the Fed's inflation picture going into the decision. A third hike on the dot plot would put $74,000 back in focus, particularly if ETF outflows resume and the 10-year holds near 5%. A hike that matches expectations without signaling another move could keep Bitcoin range-bound near current levels. Getting to $79,000 to $82,000 would require a softer Fed signal and falling oil prices.
Flows turned positive again on September 14. Whether that holds after 2:00 p.m. ET is the first read the tape gets. Kalshi's September 15 contract prices Bitcoin's December 31 close near $81,000. Polymarket gives Bitcoin a 51% chance of touching $90,000 before year-end and a 26% chance of reaching $100,000.