Baron pledges support for any Musk decision on Tesla-SpaceX merger

Baron Capital founder Ron Baron told CNBC he will publicly support whatever Elon Musk decides regarding a potential merger between Tesla Inc and SpaceX. The positioning of one of the largest holders in both companies is now in focus, with Baron Capital holding approximately $25 billion in SpaceX stock and $5 billion in Tesla stock. The next confirmable milestone is the definitive agreement or filing that would formalize any such combination.

The Positioning Lens

The flow here is not about a single trade but a structural alignment of interests. Baron began investing in Tesla in 2014 and SpaceX in 2017, and those early positions have generated around $30 billion in profits for Baron Capital clients. This figure represents a portion of $71 billion in lifetime profits for the firm. Because the founder has private exposure to both entities, the crowded side of the debate is effectively neutralized by his stated neutrality. He said he privately shared reasons why a merger could be a good idea and a bad idea with Musk, though he did not elaborate on those specific arguments during the interview. The implication for the setup is that a major institutional voice has removed itself from the opposition camp, leaving the decision squarely with the CEO.

The Starlink Valuation Case

Beyond the merger question, Baron highlighted the valuation of SpaceX's Starlink unit. He stated that Starlink alone could be a trillion dollars in revenue in 10 years. He sees that revenue translating into EBITDA of $700 billion to $800 billion. Applying a multiple to those figures could take the valuation to $14 trillion or $15 trillion. Baron projects the customer base hitting 300 million over the next 10 years, up from a current total of around 15 million. These are forward-looking estimates attributed to Baron, not current market consensus, and they rely on the continued scaling of the satellite internet service.

What to Watch Next

Talk of the merger has heated up following comments by Musk during the All-In Podcast live summit. SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell was present at the event, while Musk was interviewed virtually. The definitive test for the setup is the legal and regulatory path. Without a filed definitive agreement, the speculation remains a positioning exercise rather than a transactional reality. Investors should watch for any official filings or regulatory responses that confirm or deny the combination. The tape will react to the legal status, not the public support of a major shareholder. The level of interest from other holders remains unknown, but Baron's stance ensures that his capital will not act as a blocking factor in the decision process.