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'Super El Niño' and Europe heatwave rattle commodities as strategists flag asset-class mispricing

7/20/2026

A "Super El Niño" and an extreme heatwave across Europe have put commodity markets under pressure this year. Commodity strategists say the market is not pricing this correctly.

Their warning runs across a range of asset classes: climate volatility is being underestimated, and the gap between consensus and realized impact is real.

The shocks in focus Two distinct weather events are defining the risk backdrop. The "Super El Niño" is the first. Europe's extreme heatwave is the second.

Commodity strategists are reading both as more than short-term disruptions.

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