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Powell's equity valuation warning gains force as CAPE ratio nears dot-com peak

10/17/2026

Former Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's September 2025 assessment that equity prices are fairly highly valued resonates with renewed urgency as the S&P 500 Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings ratio approaches its historical maximum.

The valuation metric, which factors in trailing earnings over the previous decade to smooth out recessionary dips, stood near a multiple of 42 as of the October 12 closing bell.

This level sits just below the all-time high of 44.19 recorded three months before the dot-com bubble burst. The timing of Powell's observation coincides with a significant leadership transition at the central bank.

Kevin Warsh officially succeeded Powell as Fed chair on May 22, 2026.

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