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Nasdaq-100 options traders have priced in greater volatility than the index has actually delivered for 29 consecutive sessions, even as the AI trade faces headwinds from OpenAI revenue concerns and Chinese chip competition.
The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) implied volatility index (IVx) closed Monday near 20.7%, a level that matches the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) and exceeds the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) at 15%.
This alignment suggests market participants expect significant swings that have not yet materialized in realized price action.
Despite these elevated expectations, QQQ remains up approximately 5% since the start of September and reached a record high just one week ago.
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