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Moderna Shares Gain 560% as Analysts Signal Potential 38% Decline

10/11/2026

Moderna (MRNA) shares have surged more than 560% this year, outpacing the S&P 500's approximately 14% gain, driven by significant regulatory and clinical milestones.

Despite this performance, the average Wall Street price target of $121, according to Yahoo! Finance, suggests a 38% downside from current levels, leading several analysts to label the stock overvalued.

The rally was propelled by the approval of Moderna's influenza vaccine, mFLUSIVA, for patients aged 50 and older. While traditional flu vaccines rely on predicting prevalent strains months in advance, a process the U.S.

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notes results in 40% to 60% effectiveness, mRNA technology allows for faster manufacturing.

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