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Goldman Sachs changed its Federal Reserve forecast twice in four days, arriving at an October 25-basis-point hike as the new baseline after Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal a pause and the Fed's dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials projecting at least one more increase in 2026.
$BTC and $XRP both gained through the week on a September hike that futures markets had already absorbed before the vote. October arrives with no comparable cushion.
The bank's first shift came on September 15, when Goldman moved from a no-hike call to expecting a 25-basis-point increase the following day, even as chief economist David Mericle said there was no strong economic case for the move and described further hikes as possible but not the baseline.
The Federal Open Market Committee then voted 12-0 on September 16 to lift its target range to 3.75%-4.00%, the first increase since 2023. Within hours Goldman updated its view again.
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