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Brent crude above $120: Goldman Sachs flags Gulf chokepoint risk

7/21/2026

A $120-per-barrel threshold on Brent crude is what Goldman Sachs (GS) is flagging, warning the level becomes reachable if the crisis at Gulf chokepoints intensifies.

The alert gives the market a specific upside number to price against in a supply disruption scenario. The conditional Goldman Sachs framed the $120 forecast as conditional.

It applies only if conditions at the Gulf chokepoints worsen. The bank offered no base-case price level or timeline alongside the warning.

That shapes how the figure should be read: Goldman Sachs is putting a ceiling on the stress case, not issuing a directional call on where Brent settles if the situation holds steady.

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