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The supply wall in $BTC, built by long-term holders distributing 539,000 Bitcoin into the $77,000-to-$80,000 zone this year according to CryptoQuant, has capped every rally attempt toward $80,000.
When August CPI came in hot on September 11 and moved Polymarket's probability of a September 16 Federal Reserve rate hike to 83%, that supply pressure compounded.
Bitcoin traded near $77,300 on September 12, with the FOMC decision three sessions away. The macro repricing Core CPI rose 0.3% month over month in August against a consensus estimate of 0.2%.
The Federal Reserve's target rate upper bound sits at 3.75%, unchanged since December 2025, and the rates market repriced sharply on the same day.
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